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[Useless Science] Tournament Deck Analysis

Posted by LemurCatta on 16/01/2019

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Embark on a perilous adventure into the lands of data, if you dare.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mark Twain, as usual

So. Any kind of meta data is pretty hard to acquire from the outside of the Abrakam office. You can either track decks that say "I reached God with this" in the description (which aren't numerous) or refer to decks used in tournaments (and there are lot of these missing). I tried the best I could come up with: pile all tournament decks together and figure out if there are certain cards that either drag you down the tournament table or make the difference between Top 1 and Top 4. The experimental model was pretty stupid and I've got a pile of crap, as I expected, but maybe anyone here will find this pile amusing.

I analyzed 361 decks, starting with Monthly Cup #8 and ending with Aurora Open #1 (2019), including all Monthly Cups and FWC Circuit tournaments in between, whichever decks were published by Top 1-4 participants. Each deck was presented as a vector of 0-3 numbers for (almost) every card in the game, and a 1-4 number for the place its pilot finished at. When the model was build, I got a number for every card, which indicates the negative impact of this card on your placement. So, if a card has a negative score (like Windfall), it is regarded as good for winning the Top 4 bracket, and if it has a positive score (like Istanu), it will bring you down. Don't play Istanu, ESof, it brings ruin to your lineup.

No patches were taken into the account, so yes, there are decks that feature three whales in the dataset, and it piles MC8 decks against Steve and whatnot, and ratings here are more accurate for old Earthcraft and Three Wishes, but oh well.

The resulting data is available here, or right below. It is sorted by values, use Ctrl+F to find individual cards.

A way to approach it: apply a scalar multiplication of these values on your deck (a real tournament kind of solid deck) and add 3 (because illuminati). It should give you the approximate position in Top 4 (should be within 1-4). So, this deck (taken randomly, I swear) gives a score of 3.999999221660655 plus 3 Sapphire Yaks (which are defaulted to 0 because the model didn't have enough data to build a score for them from just one deck), and Teixeira took 4th place. Sweet huh? I know it's not.


Magnus, King of Merov..:-5.24822705591134

Haunted Willow:-5.21732267770113

Ogre Battler:-4.96283259309966

Priest of Everlife:-4.2774596875157

Gabrian Enchantment:-3.86444275369543

Curious Biomance..:-3.62748722339891

Twinsoul Spirit:-3.53186237072877

Village Elder:-3.07896554859559

Altar of Souls:-2.75783960299681

Doomgate, Door to Obl..:-2.56601867093105

Kobold Warbeast:-2.29207729217524

Court Jester:-2.07264877370981

Aurora's Trick:-1.92718097331868

Mistral Guide:-1.87610653893395

Vine Wall:-1.84232993116182

Taiga Explorer:-1.597432916586

Grappling Hook:-1.47139475415498

Demon Wrangler:-1.4388360327365

Ruunin, the Relentles..:-1.39262516223131


Spirit of Rebirth:-1.37352046674474

Swarming Carassi..:-1.34997660489277

Derelict Tower:-1.31212278295765

Ulani, Defender of Ov..:-1.29419204041802


Gemsilk Faerie:-1.22001081226925



Gift of the Rakoa:-1.1152598952409

Iona's Smile:-1.11204407752672

Falcon Dive:-1.1079945548905

Baldurion, Evil Archs..:-1.09672584131979

Tide Lord:-1.07838492552007

Gabrian Archon:-1.06150915673235

Hate Seed:-1.05485990776128

Dream Reaver:-1.05276429380562

Overgrown Tower:-1.04604973483838


Spirit Theft:-1.02404785419985

Shaytan Assassin:-1.01489217794031

Prophet of Tides:-0.99769415463815

Tarum, the Forest Wor..:-0.956163659989905

Eredon, Voice of All:-0.911939065496476


Shamanic Dance:-0.87428535499806

Animated Banquet:-0.835966329675555

Elderwood Embrace:-0.832723240108627

Last Nightmare:-0.829139676306724

Flight of the Ma..:-0.765648341920549

Gabrian Enchantress:-0.757185948005497


Blood Song:-0.711239059893634

Deepwood Grizzly:-0.685347429717145

Axe Grinder:-0.660026645045721

Deranged Monkey:-0.614358287588951

Ninja Toad:-0.593680212702146

King's Guard:-0.570351372141764

Bone Collector:-0.522952776419913

Shozen, the Sky Eater:-0.498396264636952


Khalim's Training:-0.485630042887383

Underground Brigand:-0.479289199215408

Soul Pact:-0.462824765531493

Sunken Tower:-0.454339317572355

Rakoan War Machi..:-0.434905692019337

Aurora's Disciple:-0.420883717183983

Voice of Truth:-0.418190790346262

War Yak:-0.411743165079363

Gabrian Commander:-0.397815621055524

Wind Soldier:-0.373651132548877

Baeru, the First Wave:-0.370521414309479

Demonic Salmon:-0.367439964520684

Mystic Beast:-0.362548121220018

Exalted Ogre:-0.34373549743324

Water Elemental:-0.326036808787092

Dune Drake:-0.31938076020396

Grim Guard:-0.317829189204696

Tiki Caretaker:-0.308294897133853

Feed the Forest:-0.290414875671526

Kaios, Demented Overm..:-0.288290826025524

CAP-10, Sky Pira..:-0.288181342694321

The Emperor's Command:-0.267279066386297

Air Elemental:-0.265219092233117


Grove Guardian:-0.260030659129792

Gabrian Warden:-0.207026868305246

Garudan, Heart of the..:-0.195713835253625

Fire Elemental:-0.194380604184484


Underground Boss:-0.149439793910145

Soul Drain:-0.130852003877295

Imperial Drain:-0.12578733294179

Tethra, Soul of the W..:-0.120542544789804

Blood Singer:-0.118610646110642

Vile Bloatfly:-0.103752912656316

Oversky Towship:-0.102522943433893



Windstorm Charger:-0.0931787498386893

Rakoan Reveller:-0.0924169407979099

Triton Chef:-0.0728369863467979

Forbidden Library:-0.0685234964742998

Sagami Warrior:-0.0615908549495311

Choking Sand:-0.0526073309554982

Outland Ranger:-0.0502732950915212

Imperial Drakerider:-0.0491802049701636


Ancient Beastmaster:-0.0427198122989618

Living Willow:-0.0418767225946474

Sagami Grovecaller:-0.0315318912900215

Emperor Kaios:-0.0107407399229379

Bomb Slinger:-0.00325512809631074

Oradrim Monk:0.0164625540126474

Fugoro, Merchant..:0.0305664779201919

Triton Trainer:0.0364635457842211

Oradrim Fanatic:0.0505024986932959

Ancient Herald:0.0554116464357915

Time of Legends:0.0596395592341748


Zealous Crusader:0.071715855605733

Wavecrash Colossus:0.0752212277331002

Hold the Line!:0.0849279966942531

Khalim's Prayer:0.101641050683275

Gift of Steel:0.110833251695049

Ruunin's Guidance:0.116322289836846

Seifer, Blood Tyrant:0.116824143888794

Crackthorn Beast:0.1207272494366

Failed Experiment:0.12444479466395

Herald of War:0.128960293855542

Shedim Brute:0.134328890093044

Flash Salmon:0.137366015534185

Flame Burst:0.144708899735909

Destructive Volley:0.145098956931333

Scourgeflame Spe..:0.185555140748819

Tale of the Old Turtl..:0.202760510261398

Windstorm Colossus:0.206455584643571

Ruunin's Shrine:0.209333221727884

Manta Rider:0.212519618833435

Oradrim Sagittarius:0.215359073042563

Shifting Tide:0.238786329910743

Triton Banquet:0.256147718991803


Battle Toads:0.257915907881339


Flash Wind:0.282342814528048

Seifer's Wrath:0.290875472004151

Windborne Emissary:0.293996490563146

Shifting Oc..:0.294077099050997


Drakkar Skycaptain:0.316953295120704

Syland Horsemaster:0.320112579695425

Hunt Down:0.330444467935341

Deepwood Stalker:0.34944327778052

Radiance, Imperial Ai..:0.374205250128292

Laya, Lady of Sorrows:0.387749204126781

Ancient Boar:0.393442562434402


Wood Elemental:0.431499056688757

Mirror Phantasm:0.435290307245115

Crumbling Golem:0.460280903012879

Triton Warrior:0.464201993483104

Khalim's Follower:0.467903026077553

Windborne Champion:0.477026113949486


Flowersilk Faerie:0.498873138406503

Hunted Outlaw:0.512534242946101

Thyrian Golem:0.544584819743779

Humbling Vision:0.570320332406333

Shadowsilk Faerie:0.577788487387029

Lord of the Wastes:0.604562260760147

Queen's Guard:0.606365400883169

Sunsilk Faerie:0.616252077588714



Orphan Fugu:0.651552368733322

Shaytan Demon:0.667636168064007

Healing Song:0.714231692417495

Flamesilk Faerie:0.778949650304105

Dustbringer Wrai..:0.820991971818549

Mobie, Azure Skywhale:0.894024664888671

Verduran Force:0.899223081743139

Lore Thief:0.916795602084472

Khalim, Sky Prodigy:0.982332580383617

Shaytan Monstrosity:1.05387454207046

Oradrim Templar:1.06306223345238

Skyward Swo..:1.08486174625365

Emerald Salamand..:1.09592152927052

King's Faithful:1.10708587907187

Daring Adventurer:1.20195223033707

Leaping Fugu:1.21894741511631

Shaytan Scavenger:1.22376420364771

Radiance, Scourge of..:1.3112955820248

Wild Avenger:1.39521645822843

Barrensky Vermin:1.4538920615376


Aurora, Myth Maker:1.47303722950083

Snowstorm Lancer:1.4996772012004

Ruunin's Messenger:1.53137483022397

Lost Explorer:1.58978321671041

Desert Twister:1.65353816392747

Rainforest Explorer:1.66446906384954


Wind Gate:1.78258420751347


Sharra, Dragonslayer:1.81989015731425

Bloated Toad:2.01505195988995

Divine Guardian:2.03136343390305

Tiki Totem:2.04093920501275

Aurora's Creation:2.04847033603927

Windstorm Archer:2.15960011230701

Rain of Fish:2.19776355693402

Tiki Healer:2.50160990739415

Bloodfire Wisp:2.56745506248572


Verduran Emissary:2.92684369541898

Sturdy Shell:2.97831469620438



Tiki Piper:3.71073533317622

Celestial Tower:3.78387897372889

Gemshell To..:4.39030056945662

Elderwood Hermit:4.96417710225201

Egg of Wonders:5.13076876539916

Tax Collector:5.56752052727813

Flying Piranha:5.91413011310424

Spring Mochi:6.42800895755978



Blazing Salamander:8.17183768023282

Wandering Monk:8.28389462679906

Soul Eater:8.33132893842798

Ogre Dance:9.55514146528071

Istanu, Eternal..:13.6710125978962

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